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Portfolio Manager's
Discussion
SM&R Growth Fund
SM&R
Equity Income Fund
SM&R
Balanced Fund
SM&R Government Bond
Fund
SM&R
Primary Fund
SM&R
Tax Free Fund
Value
Investing
Growth
Investing
Current
Performance
*Please
note that as of November 1, 2000, Class C shares of the SM&R Mutual
Funds are no longer available for sale.
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| SM&R MUTUAL FUNDS
1999 SUMMARY |
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In 1999, the U.S. economy exhibited steady growth, benign
inflation, a Federal budget surplus, as well as increases in
employment and real incomes. In addition to these upbeat indicators,
many businesses experienced another year of increased earnings and
the stock market ended another year with double digit increases.
However, unlike 1998, when the Fed decreased interest rates 50 basis
points, in 1999 the Fed increased interest rates by 75 basis points
to address liquidity issues and to head off any manifestations of
inflation. 1999 also saw the resurgence of the Japanese economy (the
Nikkei was up 124%) as well as most emerging markets.
The markets were volatile again in 1999, however, we did not
witness another broad market correction such as the one that struck
in October of 1998. The S&P 500 notched a fifth consecutive
double digit gain in 1999 finishing the year up 21.03%. The FINRAAQ
index broke every record imaginable on its way to an 85.6% finish
and the Russell 2000 notched its best return in nearly two years
finishing up 19.6%. The real story in the market, however, was the
FINRAAQ index. In the last three months of 1999 technology stocks set
a torrid pace. From October 18 through December 31, the FINRAAQ
tacked on 1380 points, going from 2689.15 to 4069.13. The market for
1999 can best be summed up as: Technology, Technology, and
Technology. The reason the Technology sector took top honors for
performance can be summed up as: Earnings, Earnings, and Earnings.
No other sector could boast such high quality earnings and solid
fundamentals (Internet stocks excepted). The main reason behind the
eye-popping performance of the technology sector is the build-out of
the Internet. One could make a case that there are no technology
companies that are not involved with the Internet in some fashion.
We still believe the best way to play the Internet is to invest in
those companies that are building the infrastructure of the Internet
or whose products are an integral component in other company’s
Internet infrastructure products. With that said, we cast a wary eye
towards the consumer focused internet sector while at the same time
we are watching with interest any company focused on
business-to-business e-commerce, telecommunications,
telecommunications semiconductors (IC’s), broadband, network
storage, and other similar undercurrents.
The SM&R Growth Fund (Class T) was able to post a 24.49%
return before sales charges (but after other expenses) in 1999 vs.
the S&P 500 at 21.03%. An over weighted technology sector was
the primary reason for the strong performance. When we refer to a
sector as being over weighted, we are referring to the sector
weighting relative to the S&P 500. Other sectors that
contributed to the performance were Utilities, Transportation, and
Energy. The fund is well diversified across all sectors and
overweighs sectors by no more than twice the S&P 500 sector
weights and under weights by no more than half the S&P 500
sector weights.
Although the Y2K problem initially appears to have been more hype
than an actual problem, the real tests are still to come. January
30, 2000 represents the first real data crunching test of the year
for business. Going forward, the end of each month and the end of
each quarter represent potential data crunching problems for
business primarily because this time the exercise will be live and
not some sort of rigged test or experiment. The media misled the
public and even some businesses into thinking that the real problems
would occur exactly at midnight on December 31 when in actuality,
the real threat would be present throughout the year. We will
continue to monitor the situation carefully but don’t expect any
major developments.
We continue to seek out undervalued companies undergoing positive
changes in fundamentals and selling those issues that have hit their
price targets or whose fundamentals do not warrant inclusion in our
portfolio. Within the Technology sector we seek to identify those
companies that possess a unique advantage within their niche or are
considered to be the leader within their sub-sector. These processes
have served the fund well over the last several years and should
continue to do so going forward. Areas of the market that we will be
watching closely in 2000 will be Healthcare, Financials, Capital
Goods, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology, Telecommunications, and
Utilities.
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SM&R Growth Fund performance figures are
historical and reflect reinvestment of all dividends and
capital gains distributions and changes in net asset value.
Returns for Class A, B, and C will vary from Class T as shown
above due to differences in expenses and sales charge
structure. Average annual returns are based on the
maximum sales charge and reinvestment of all dividends and
capital gains. The maximum initial sales charge for
Class A and C shares reflect the current maximum initial sales
charges of 5.00% and 1.00%, respectively. Class B shares
reflect the applicable contingent deferred sales charge
(CDSC), which is 5% in the first year declining to 1% in the
fifth year, and is eliminated thereafter. A CDSC of
1.00% applies to redemption of Class C shares only within the
first thirteen months of purchase.
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The SM&R Equity Income Fund’s objective is to provide current
income, along with an opportunity for increased share price over
time. The fund is guided by a strategy of investing in primarily the
stocks of well-established companies with records of consistent and
increasing dividend payments. In 1999, the fund (Class T) produced a
return of (1.39)%, before sales charges (but after other expenses.)
Over that same time frame, the fund’s peers, as measured by the
Lipper Equity Income Fund Index, returned 4.19%. The fund has
continued to surpass the goal of maintaining a dividend yield at
least 50% greater than that of the market, as represented by the
Standard & Poor’s 500 stock market index. The current dividend
yield on the fund is 2.7% versus 1.2% for the S&P 500.
The fund’s performance suffered from its overweighed position in
financial services relative to the S&P 500 financial sector
weight. The poor performance of financial companies is a result of
interest rates rising throughout 1999. We feel this is a short-term
phenomenon and have strong convictions regarding the outlook for
financial companies going forward—particularly the financial
conglomerates, which offer a variety of services to consumers. The
financial sector is also where investors can locate strong dividend
yielding stocks. As such, the financial sector currently encompasses
nearly one quarter of the fund’s holdings.
As 1999 wound down, it was clear to all market watchers that
technology was the place to be invested. The Equity Income Fund
currently invests a relatively small portion of its assets in the
technology sector, as these companies typically need to reinvest
their cash and therefore do not pay a dividend to shareholders.
While we have concerns regarding what appears to be a "speculative
bubble" in technology investing, we are looking to slightly increase
our technology exposure in the fund when and if we see a pullback in
the lofty levels this sector is currently exhibiting. While we will
not deviate from our value style, nor our conservative philosophy,
we believe we can afford to take on incremental levels of risk going
forward as we have a strong enough portfolio yield to allow for some
diversification into non-dividend paying stocks. We can assure you,
though, that we will not follow in the footsteps of our competitors
and raise our technology weighting to greater than the market, nor
even a market weighting, as many of our so-called equity income fund
competitors have done.
Going forward, we believe the market will remain in a relatively
flat trading range over the next several quarters as the economic
fundamentals which drive the equity markets harbor neither terribly
worrisome nor exuberant information. We maintain a cautious tilt,
however, as the market appears clearly overvalued by most historical
measures. We believe inflation will tick upwards for the year 2000,
and at a quicker rate than forecast by the Federal Reserve. The
reasoning behind our forecast is that productivity can only offset
wage inflation for so long. Currently, wage inflation, as measured
by the Employment Cost Index, is growing at a faster rate than CPI.
However, productivity is growing at the same rate as wages. There is
nothing inflationary about wages growing as fast as productivity. We
feel productivity will taper off after several quarters of strong
showings and wage inflation will reveal itself in the CPI numbers.
We also feel GDP growth will slow to around 3% and CPI will increase
to around 3% in early 2000 as productivity slows.
Under our forecast environment,
technology shares will likely come down off their recent highs, as
investors will begin to doubt the growth assumptions underlying
their lofty valuations. When this occurs, these same investors will
likely seek solace in the shares of companies with stable,
predictable earnings growth combined with the safety of dividends,
such as energy, financials and consumer staples—all core sectors for
the SM&R Equity Income Fund. While the fund has not lived up to
even our expectations for 1999, we would remind our shareholders
that the fund strives to maintain a strong dividend yield, holding a
portfolio of value stocks, maintaining low turnover-which leads to
low taxes, and stays true to its stated goal of conservative
investments in stable, dividend paying companies with the potential
for share price appreciation over time.
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SM&R Equity Income Fund performance figures
are historical and reflect reinvestment of all dividends and
capital gains distributions and changes in net asset value.
Returns for Class A, B, and C will vary from Class T as shown
above due to differences in expenses and sales charge
structure. Average annual returns are based on the
maximum sales charge and reinvestment of all dividends and
capital gains. The maximum initial sales charge for
Class A and C shares reflect the current maximum initial sales
charges of 5.00% and 1.00%, respectively. Class B shares
reflect the applicable contingent deferred sales charge
(CDSC), which is 5% in the first year declining to 1% in the
fifth year, and is eliminated thereafter. A CDSC of
1.00% applies to redemption of Class C shares only within the
first thirteen months of purchase.
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The SM&R Balanced Fund is the lowest risk fund in the
SM&R Equity Funds. The fund strives to maintain the objective of
providing reasonable current income and share price appreciation,
while protecting the initial investment. The fund’s investment
strategy is to use a balanced approach by investing in a combination
of the high-yielding stock of well-known companies, as well as bonds
and money market instruments. Throughout 1999, the fund’s
conservative blend of about 60% stocks, 25% bonds and 15% money
market instruments has served the fund well. The equity portion of
the fund produced a total return (capital appreciation and dividend
income) of approximately 21% while the bond portion of the fund
returned approximately (1.0)%. Combined, the fund (Class T) produced
a total return of 11.87% during 1999, before sales charges (but
after other expenses.) As a comparison, the fund’s peers, as
measured by the Lipper Balanced Fund Index returned 8.98% over the
same period.
Within the fund, we continued our fixed income strategy of
structuring maturities at the mid-term to long end of the yield
curve. Within the equity portion of the fund, we utilize the same
conservative and defensive stock selection disciplines used in the
SM&R Equity Income and Growth Funds. The key is identifying
stocks of superior companies and purchasing them at discounted
valuations. During 1999, we noted particular strength from our
equity holdings in the technology and energy sectors. The fund
benefited from the nearly market weight of technology companies
relative to the S&P 500. While this may appear to contradict our
philosophy of conservative stewardship, we feel the balanced
stock/bond approach allows us a little more latitude in sector
allocation versus say, the Equity Income Fund. In other words, the
stability of the fixed income portion allows us to increase the risk
on the equity portion. Feel secure in knowing, however, that the
fund will not go to excesses seen by other funds this year. We do
not feel a market weight in technology projected unnecessary risk
into the fund and it provided for strong overall fund performance
during a year in which fixed income investing produced a negative
return.
Balanced Fund investors were rewarded again in 1999 by their
investment in the fund, with a fifth consecutive year of
double-digit returns. Although the fund has not produced the
spectacular returns witnessed by some equity funds over the last
year or two, we have achieved our goal of providing consistently
positive performance in the strong up market and believe the fund is
well positioned should equity markets turn downward. The
conservative and low risk balanced approach has enabled SM&R to
provide upside potential while protecting the downside via this
uniquely positioned fund.
Going forward, we believe the market will remain in a relatively
flat trading range over the next several quarters as the economic
fundamentals which drive the equity markets harbor neither terribly
worrisome nor exuberant information. We maintain a cautious tilt
however, as the market appears clearly overvalued by most historical
measures. We believe inflation will tick upwards for the year 2000,
and at a quicker rate than forecast by the Federal Reserve. The
reasoning behind our forecast is that productivity can only offset
wage inflation for so long. Currently wage inflation, as measured by
the Employment Cost Index, is growing at a faster rate than CPI.
However, productivity is growing at the same rate as wages. There is
nothing inflationary about wages growing as fast as productivity. We
feel productivity will taper off after several quarters of strong
showings and wage inflation will reveal itself in the CPI numbers.
We feel GDP growth will slow to around 3% and CPI will increase to
around 3% in early 2000 as productivity slows.
Under our forecast environment, technology shares
will likely come down off their recent highs, as investors will
begin to doubt the growth assumptions underlying their lofty
valuations. When this occurs, these same investors will likely seek
solace in the shares of companies with stable, predictable earnings
growth combined with the safety of dividends, such as energy,
healthcare, and consumer staples—all core sectors for the SM&R
Balanced Fund. This should provide upside for the equity portion of
the fund, while the fixed income portion protects the overall
portfolio value from sustained market corrections.
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SM&R Balanced Fund performance figures are
historical and reflect reinvestment of all dividends and
capital gains distributions and changes in net asset value.
Returns for Class A, B, and C will vary from Class T as shown
above due to differences in expenses and sales charge
structure. Average annual returns are based on the
maximum sales charge and reinvestment of all dividends and
capital gains. The maximum initial sales charge for
Class A and C shares reflect the current maximum initial sales
charges of 5.00% and 1.00%, respectively. Class B shares
reflect the applicable contingent deferred sales charge
(CDSC), which is 5% in the first year declining to 1% in the
fifth year, and is eliminated thereafter. A CDSC of
1.00% applies to redemption of Class C shares only within the
first thirteen months of purchase.
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Bondholders experienced a breathtaking roller coaster ride over
the past twelve months. Investors who turned to bonds for safety and
security instead experienced volatility and uncertainty. Market
volatility caused by economic problems in Asia and Russia caused the
collapse of the hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management. As the
hedge fund's losses mushroomed to over $4 billion, a consortium of
14 banks and brokerage firms negotiated a bailout plan. The demise
of the little-known fund heightened concerns of a global liquidity
crisis. This spurred the Federal Reserve into making three separate
25 basis point (or 1/4 percentage point) reductions in the Fed Funds
rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight borrowing.
These events sparked a "flight to quality" as investors sold
corporate bonds and shifted into U.S. Treasury Bonds. The yield on
the 30-year Treasury bond subsequently declined to a three-decade
low of 4.69% in October 1998.
Interest rates reversed course during 1999, however. The yield on
the 30-year Treasury bond rose by 100 basis points or 1 percentage
point. Economic data rather than stocks and emerging markets
returned as the driving force behind movements in interest rates.
The market sentiment on expected Federal Reserve interest rate
action shifted from easing early in the year to tightening by late
in the second quarter. Concerns that a global recession could hurt
U.S. economic growth changed to worries that a global recovery could
bring competition for the foreign capital that has supported U.S.
Treasury markets.
As the difference in the yields between corporate bonds and
Treasury securities increased, we took the opportunity to place
approximately 35% of your portfolio in investment grade corporate
issues. The diversification and a shorter weighted-average maturity
of the fund enabled your fund (Class T) to achieve a return of
(1.27)% since the beginning of 1999 versus a return of (1.51)% for
the Lehman Government/Mortgage-Backed Securities Index.
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The SM&R Government Bond Fund's performance
figures are historical and reflect reinvestment of all
dividends and capital gains distributions and changes in net
asset value. Returns for Class A, B and C will vary from
Class T as shown above due to differences in expenses and
sales charge structure. Average annual returns are based
on the maximum sales charge and reinvestment of all dividends
and capital gains. The maximum initial sales charge for
Class A and C shares reflect the current maximum initial sales
charges of 4.75% and 1.00%, respectively. Class B shares
reflect the applicable contingent deferred sales charge
(CDSC), which is 3% in the first year, declines to 1% in the
third year, and is eliminated thereafter. A CSDC of
1.00% applies to redemption of Class C shares only within the
first thirteen months of purchase. Investor's share
prices and returns will fluctuate and shares, when redeemed,
may be worth more or less than their original
cost.
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With the rapid decline and subsequent rise in long-term bond
interest rates over the past twelve months, investors who turned to
short-term bonds found some protection from the market's volatility.
During the fourth quarter 1998, investors concerns about a collapse
of emerging markets and a liquidity crisis drove long-term Treasury
bond yields to a three-decade low.
Interest rates reversed course in 1999, however, as economic data
rather than stocks and emerging markets returned as the reason for
movement in interest rates. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond
rose by 100 basis points (or 1 percentage point) as Federal Reserve
interest rate policy shifted from easing to tightening. From
September through November 1998, the Federal Reserve reduced the Fed
Funds rate (the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans) by
150 basis points in order to avert a worldwide liquidity crisis. In
1999, however, concerns that a global recession could hurt U.S.
economic growth changed to worries that a global recovery could
bring competition for the foreign capital that has supported U.S.
Treasury markets. In order to take a "preemptive strike" against a
rise in inflation, the Federal Reserve increased the Fed Funds rate
100 basis points, effectively "taking back" two-thirds of the
interest rate reductions of the fall.
The weighted-average maturity of 0.05 years at the beginning of
1999 provided a great deal of price stability for your fund during
this rise in interest rates. Five percent of your portfolio's net
assets were invested in the long bond (the 30-year U.S. Treasury
bond) as yields topped 6.25%. Another 20 percent was invested in
corporate bonds with maturities ranging from one to five years.
These bonds represent a mix of sectors, including utility, financial
and industrial. By the end the fiscal year, August 31, 1999, the
fund's weighted-average maturity had lengthened to 1.46 years.
These changes enhanced the yield and return for your fund. The
total return for the SM&R Primary Fund from the beginning of
1999 through August 31, 1999 was 3.0% versus 1.8% for the Lehman 1-3
year Government/Corporate Bond Index. Your fund also outpaced this
index for the past 12 months, returning 4.8% versus 4.0% for the
index.
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The SM&R Primary Fund's performance figures
are historical and reflect reinvestment of all dividends and
capital gains distributions and changes in net asset
value. The SM&R Primary Fund does not have a sales
charge. Average annual returns include reinvestment of
all dividends and capital gains. Investor's share prices
and returns will fluctuate and shares, when redeemed, may be
worth more or less than their original cost.
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Yields have climbed in all key sectors of the U.S. Fixed income
markets in 1999. The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond represents the
extreme case with yields up roughly 135 basis points from the lows
reached in October 1998 after the Russian debt crisis caused a
worldwide flight to quality. The increase in yields in other market
sectors, including municipals, has not been nearly so dramatic since
these yields declined much less than similar maturity Treasuries.
Generally, municipal security yields are 80% to 90% of comparable
Treasuries. However, during October 1998, investors could buy
AAA-rated municipal securities at higher yields than Treasuries with
the same maturity.
Municipal yields have risen 75 basis points, or 3/4 of 1%, since
the beginning of 1999. The slope of the municipal yield curve has
remained extremely steep, with 20-year municipals yielding roughly
210 basis points more than 1-year issues. In the Treasury market,
the difference between 1-year and 30-year bond yields is only about
80 basis points.
Your fund continues to be conservatively managed, predominately
invested in general obligation and essential service revenue bonds.
The weighted-average quality rating and weighted-average maturity
are approximately AA+ and 11 years, respectively. This investment
style has enabled your fund (Class T) to produce a total return of
6.19% for the volatile interest rate environment over the last five
years.
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The SM&R Tax Free Fund's performance figures
are historical and reflect reinvestment of all dividends and
capital gains distributions and changes in net asset
value. Fund income from the SM&R Tax Free Fund may
be subject to alternative minimum tax. Returns for Class
A, B and C will vary from Class T as shown above due to
differences in expenses and sales charge structure.
Average annual returns are based on the maximum sales and
reinvestment of all dividends and capital gains. The
maximum initial sales charge for Class A and C shares reflect
the current maximum initial sales charges of 4.75% and 1.00%,
respectively. Class B shares reflect the applicable
contingent deferred sales charge (CDSC), which is 3% in the
first year, declines to 1% in the third year, and is
eliminated thereafter. A CDSC of 1.00% applies to
redemption of Class C shares only within the first thirteen
months of purchase. Investor's share prices and returns
will fluctuate and shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or
less than their original cost.
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Value investing is
characterized by the identification of companies whose stocks are
not trading at a price that is consistent with the value of the
underlying assets, cash flows, or brand value. Analyzing a company
in terms of asset or cash flow value is quantitative in nature while
the assessment of brand value is primarily qualitative. Two recent
examples of undervalued brand names are Apple Computer and IBM.
Several years ago IBM traded as low as the $37 per share. This was a
ridiculously low price for the stock with respect to the value that
the IBM brand name implied as well as the underlying asset value of
the company. The same reasoning applies to Apple Computer. The Apple
brand name and logo are one of the most recognizable brand
combinations in the world. Based on brand value, recognition and
underlying asset value, it was difficult to imagine that the price
of Apple shares would remain at $13 per share forever. Sure enough,
Apple Computer presented investors with an incredible turnaround and
impressive stock performance in 1998. In fact they were one of the
top performing stocks of 1998. Value investing seeks to identify
companies like this and capitalize on their undervalued
condition.
Growth investing is characterized by
a shorter time horizon and careful attention to quarterly and annual
earnings reports. In a high flying sector such as technology, it is
common for investors to sell a stock when a company fails to meet
analysts earnings estimates even by one penny per share because it
may be a sign of poor performance to come. With growth/momentum
investing it is quite difficult to predict when a growth company’s
growth will slow, so the slightest bit of news is enough to cause
investors to scramble to buy or sell. Other companies such as Dell
computer have had a stellar growth record for several years in a
row. It is potentially one of the most successful equity investments
ever. The most important aspect to remember about growth investing
is that one must be very in tune with the industry and a company’s
prospects in order to be successful. An investor must know the
reasons for the company’s growth and what could cause the growth to
slow.
*Source:
Securities Management and Research,
Inc. |
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You should consider the
investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the investment
company carefully before investing. Please read the prospectus,
which
contains this and other information about the investment company, carefully
before you invest. |
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Copyright © 2000 Securities Management and Research, Inc.
Member FINRA, SIPC
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